Experiment 002 · VDX Flicker

Anomalous light curves in TESS Sector 103

Concluded25 October 2026 – 26 October 2026

A reproducible search of the 13,000 two-minute TESS light curves of Sector 103 for stars whose brightness changes in unusual ways, followed by explicit artefact rejection and a check against variable-star catalogues.

Research area
VDX Flicker
Question
Among the stars TESS observed at 2-minute cadence in Sector 103, which ones show unusual brightness changes that no existing catalogue of variable stars accounts for?
Hypothesis
Two unsupervised anomaly detectors, applied to noise-normalised features and followed by documented artefact rejection, single out a short list in which some candidates have no catalogued variability class.
Treatments
  • Isolation Forest, for global anomalies (extreme values in a few features)
  • Local Outlier Factor, for local anomalies (unusual combinations of features)
Measures
  • 19 dimensionless features per star (variability, periodogram, transit-like dips, isolated dips and flares)
  • Combined anomaly rank and the agreement between the two methods
  • Stars removed by each artefact criterion, counted sequentially and independently
  • Catalogue label per candidate (known, known with a different class, absent)
  • Persistence of the event in other TESS sectors
Status
Concluded
Dates
25 October 2026 – 26 October 2026

01

Protocol

Data

Mission TESS, Sector 103 (Year 8)
Product 2-minute SPOC light curves, PDCSAP flux
Data release DR141 (release notes DRN141)
SPOC version spoc-5.0.126-20251212
Light curves 12,995 targets

Only data with published release notes are used, so every input can be cited. Sectors 105–107 already have light curves on MAST but no release notes yet: they are left out of this experiment and noted for a second version.

Protocol

The pipeline runs in fixed phases. Every run records the hash of its parameters and the version of each input file.

  1. Development sample, then frozen parameters. All thresholds are chosen on a sample of 3,000 targets, drawn with a fixed seed and stratified by TESS magnitude. The parameters are then frozen, and a single final run covers all 13,000 targets without further changes.

  2. Cleaning. Cadences with quality flags or non-finite values are removed, the curve is split at gaps longer than half a day, and each segment is normalised by its median. No detrending and no sigma-clipping: they would remove the signals we are looking for. "Impulsive outlier" cadences are kept, because a short real event can carry that flag, and are judged later.

  3. Features. For each star: variability and shape of the flux distribution, a Lomb–Scargle periodogram, a box search for transit-like dips, and the strongest isolated dip and flare. The model inputs are expressed in units of each star's own point-to-point noise, so a faint star that is pure noise looks the same as a bright star that is pure noise.

  4. Ranking. Isolation Forest and Local Outlier Factor score every star; the rank is the mean of the two percentile ranks. For each star the three features furthest from the median are listed, so the reason for its rank can be read.

  5. Artefact rejection, as an explicit phase. Criteria are applied in a fixed order and each one is counted in two ways: how many stars it removes after the previous ones, and how many would fail it on its own.

    criterion rejects when
    undefined flux the median flux is close to zero after background subtraction
    contamination less than half of the flux in the aperture belongs to the target
    centroid systematic the flux follows the image centroid
    background systematic the flux follows the sky background
    event at an edge the event driving the score sits within 0.1 d of a data gap
    impulsive outlier at least half of the event is flagged as an impulsive outlier
  6. Catalogue check. Each candidate is matched against SIMBAD, VSX, the TESS Objects of Interest and the TESS eclipsing-binary catalogue. It is labelled known (a catalogued class explains the event), known with a different class, or absent (no variability class in any catalogue). Events that coincide in time with events on other stars on the same detector are flagged as possible systematics.

  7. Persistence. For candidates observed in other sectors (SPOC light curves only, up to Sector 104), the same features are computed there. A candidate with no other sector is labelled persistence not verifiable: it stays on the list and is reported separately.

What this experiment can and cannot say

The output is a ranked list of candidates for follow-up. An absent label means only that the four catalogues above give the star no variability class at the time of the query. It is not a confirmation that the behaviour is new or astrophysical: that needs inspection of the pixels, other sectors and, where possible, other telescopes. The report states the number of candidates in each label and the known limits of the method.

Records

Each run is stored on VDX Core as an execution of the project, with the parameters, the dataset version and every candidate attached as a result with its plot. The code and the report are versioned together in the project repository.

02

Build log

  1. Final run complete, 50 candidates

    The final run over all Sector 103 light curves has finished. Artefact rejection left 5,952 stars, and the top 50 of these were checked against the catalogues. Eleven have no catalogued variability class. In nine of the eleven the event also appears in another sector.

    The run was registered on VDX Core, and the results, the limits and the candidate table are now on this page. The catalogue queries went through on the second attempt: SIMBAD was briefly unreachable on the first, and the second used the same cached answers.

  2. Parameters frozen, final run started

    The development sample of 3,000 light curves fixed every threshold of cleaning, features, models and artefact rejection. The parameters are now frozen, and the single final run over all 13,000 Sector 103 light curves has started. Of these, 12,919 pass cleaning; 76 are excluded because their median flux is not positive.

03

Results

Summary

The final run covered all 12,995 Sector 103 light curves with the parameters frozen on the development sample (parameter fingerprint 7c11bba8442014f5). It produced a list of 50 candidates for follow-up. Eleven of them have no variability class in any of the four catalogues queried. None of the 50 is a confirmed new variable: each one is a candidate until someone inspects the pixels and checks other observations.

step stars
Light curves in Sector 103 12,995
Kept after cleaning 12,919
Pass every artefact criterion 5,952
Candidates (top 50 of the survivors) 50

Data: DR141, SPOC spoc-5.0.126-20251212. Catalogues were queried on 2026-10-26.

Artefact rejection

Criteria are applied in order. Sequential counts the stars a criterion removes after the earlier criteria have run. Independent counts the stars that would fail that criterion if it were applied alone.

criterion sequential independent
undefined flux 3,502 3,502
contamination 2,396 5,708
centroid systematic 11 255
background systematic 79 97
event at an edge 979 1,707
impulsive outlier 0 4

Catalogue labels

event known known, different class absent total
isolated dip 25 3 9 37
flare 4 7 2 13
total 29 10 11 50

Persistence was checked on the 50 candidates. In 41 the event appears again in at least one other sector, in 6 it does not appear in any other sector, and 3 have no other sector to check. No event lines up in time with events on other stars of the same detector beyond what chance would produce. Twelve candidates have a catalogued variable star within 42 arcseconds, which is two TESS pixels.

Candidates absent from the catalogues

rank TIC event SIMBAD persistence notes
1 183562384 dip HD 4292 (spectroscopic binary) 4 of 4 sectors
4 292292315 dip HD 170312 3 of 8 also in the development sample
6 231632822 dip HD 201172 1 of 3 centroid shift during the event
10 370324073 dip TYC 8829-111-1 (spectroscopic binary) 5 of 6
14 464846595 dip HD 138585 2 of 2
39 260889990 flare 4 of 5 partial contamination
49 299271875 dip HD 145453 3 of 4
73 281597526 flare not persistent (0 of 7) rotational variable 21″ away
85 469974264 dip no SIMBAD object 2 of 3 also in the development sample
93 39177520 dip HD 150168 1 of 4 eclipsing binary 23″ away
94 8419033 dip not verifiable rotational variable 26″ away

The rank is the star's position in the combined anomaly ranking of all stars. The ranking was computed before artefact rejection, which is why the ranks go above 50.

A persistent dip in a star with no variability class is the most direct lead for follow-up. TIC 183562384 and TIC 370324073 are spectroscopic binaries, so an eclipse is the obvious first explanation to test. For the candidates with a catalogued variable within two pixels, that neighbour has to be ruled out as the source before anything else.

Limits

  • Model dependence. Isolation Forest and LOF agree only weakly (Spearman ρ 0.27, and 3 stars shared in their top 50s). On the development sample the agreement was ρ 0.53 with 10 shared. The list therefore depends on the choice of model, and other anomalous stars sit just below the cut. Refitting the models on the survivors of artefact rejection keeps 38 of the 50.
  • One sector. Each event is found in Sector 103 alone. Persistence uses only SPOC light curves up to Sector 104. Sectors 105–107 are left for a second version.
  • Resolution. TESS pixels are 21″ wide, and this run does no pixel-level centroid analysis. A nearby star can therefore produce an event in the target's light curve.
  • Catalogues. Only SIMBAD, VSX, the TOI list and the TESS eclipsing-binary catalogue were queried. Gaia DR3 variability, ASAS-SN and ZTF were not. An absent label may change once they are.

Records

The run is stored on VDX Core as execution 2 of the project: the 50 candidates are attached as results, each with its plot. The full report, the code and the parameters are versioned together in the project repository. The candidate table can be downloaded below.

  • Sector 103 candidates

    Download CSV

    The 50 candidates of the final run, one row per star, with the catalogue label and the persistence check. Every row is a candidate for follow-up, not a confirmed variable.

    ColumnUnitDescription
    rank—Position in the combined anomaly ranking of all stars, before artefact rejection
    tic—TESS Input Catalog identifier
    ra_degdegRight ascension (J2000)
    dec_degdegDeclination (J2000)
    tmagmagTESS magnitude
    event—Event that drives the score, dip or flare
    combined_percentile—Mean of the Isolation Forest and LOF percentile ranks, 0 to 1
    dip_depthrelative fluxDepth of the strongest isolated dip
    flare_amplituderelative fluxAmplitude of the strongest flare
    catalogue_label—known, known_different_class or absent (no variability class in SIMBAD, VSX, TOI or the TESS EB catalogue)
    simbad_id—Main SIMBAD identifier, empty if none within the match radius
    simbad_type—SIMBAD object type
    vsx_type—VSX variability type, empty if not in VSX
    persistence—persistent, not_persistent or not_verifiable (no other SPOC sector up to 104)
    other_sectors—Other sectors with a SPOC light curve, space separated
    warnings—centroid_shift, impulsive_outlier or partial_contamination, separated by semicolons